Facebook - The Finale?
The chatter on the wire has been that facebook will move from a free to a subscription model. This rumour has been carried around the world several times on the 'vine' yet, as a facebook user, I've still to receive any firm (or any for that matter) communication from facebook.
It raises a number of very basic questions for me. Who actually "owns" facebook. I know someone has the rights to it but with c800 million users indignant every time you change a feature or setting, it seems that facebook has become the scene of a global privacy battle rather than a social media.
Users seem to be wrestling to maintain their rights to privacy whilst facebook are repeatedly accused of surreptitiously changing settings in the background, without notification to its users, to greater capitalise on its user base.
The indignation often extends to functional changes too despite this being a free to use service, so I think it's fair to say facebook has created a 'fan' base.
However, it's not unique. Bebo; Friends Reunited; Twitter; YouTube; Stumbleupon; Digg - to name but a few. Friends Reunited shifted their business model from subscription to free because people stayed away from their platform presumably because they didn't feel there was value in the subscription. Others subscribed for a short period of time, made contact and then took the conversation 'offline' to free e-mail etc.
The facebook business model appears to have been about growth; the platform widely attractive to a huge number of people across all the continents but the demographics of the users make me question whether the business model can be turned to include a subscription fee when there's so much competition and there are such low entry level costs.
If it isn't going to shift to subscription, then the salutory lesson for me is that regardless of how large your customer base becomes, you should always be able to communicate with them in a meaningful way. Facebook appears to have become so colossal that it's now succeptable to rumour and they seem unable to control or respond to these ongoing battles with their users.
Does your business really know it's customers and what they're saying about you?
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I've no doubt that Facebook will eventually fall, but I don't think it will happen just yet. Look at Google+ for instance. It's an offering by a massive player, yet it has not succeeded in shifting members away from Facebook. It will take Facebook to really drop the ball for people to move en masse.
There is that phenomena where such giant players are able to pretty much do what they like and, whilst the users express their discontent, they continue to subscribe.
I wonder if the change in subscription from free to paid would be the kind of game changer you refer to though.
I would imagine the demographics of facebook's user profile will be predominantly younger people with lower disposable income in the occident but if they've also got a presence in places in the orient and middle east (and twitter was cited as being widely used in the 'Arab Springs'), they may also be more reluctant to divert hard earned cash into 'social' networking.
I like the facebook model where the income is generated through advertising etc and whilst they have a massive audience, they remain an attractive place to advertise.
Introducing subscriptions may result in a smaller user base ergo a smaller advertising footprint.
4th sector is becoming big in the UK with the 'social enterprise' concept which is not dissimilar to the income generation model of facebook. Perhaps places like libraries and swimming baths should be looking at more adventurous models of income generation rather than reverting to hitting the pocket of service users (who are primarily tax payers too)?
I would be absolutely amazed if Facebook started charging for usage and although there was a story over the weekend of such a move I think it was very much a hoax rather than having any basis.
Networks tend to grow in strength exponentially with each new member (known funnily enough as the network effect), and whilst there are very few physical barriers to movement Facebook do still enjoy a very large network effect, because it's a major hassle to replicate your Facebook network on another platform.
Microsoft enjoyed a similar benefit because so many people use/d Microsoft products, and there failing came when Google came along and fundamentally changed the landscape by offering many more applications over the web rather than the desktop.
I think it will take a similar shift to rob Facebook of their premier position in the social networking space.
I have to admit, I've tried to pin down a definitive answer on these rumours and can't find one but it does appear to have generated some concern (hence the post).
There are some excellent examples of companies such as Scotrail using twitter to effectively communicate to passangers and there are real opportunities created with social media - facebook included - but it also seems to expose companies and platforms to the risk of vexatious viral stories which facebook appears to have been unable to quell or respond to.
Whether they're aware of the rumours (and the hoax becomes more elaborate with every telling - I saw someone publishing a pricing structure to add credence to the story! Not a complex hoax but it's inflamed a few users nonetheless), I'm not sure but the concern has certainly been created.
I imagine by the time you trace the source of the rumour (with associated investigatory costs), it will be nothing more than a futile exercise but for smaller businesses, a similar campaign could be very costly?
The other bit about facebook that fascinates me is the endless tussle between the platform owners and its users. The users appear to feel like they own the platform and vociferously campaign against developments and perceived intrusions.
As consumers, we've really moved on. We're not so much customers now as stakeholders (at least psychologically)?
It's a tough one. If they respond to all of these hoaxes you could argue that they're validating them and thus encouraging further such hoaxes. Such is the nature of the tech industry that if Facebook do make an official announcement it would be all over the blogosphere in no time at all. Until that happens I'd take any other rumours with a large pinch of salt.
As for their customer service. That's probably a gripe with a lot of websites, especially the pure online ones. Many make it very difficult to get in touch with anyone. Would you know how to talk to someone at Google or Amazon for instance? Both are very difficult, but I suppose both try and pre-empt many issues and provide FAQ help services to solve most of the queries that arise.
I strongly suspect Facebook have their finger on usage levels and if they start to tail off then they'll act accordingly. In all the time I've used Facebook people have always moaned about the latest site re-design, yet they soon seem to forget what the old version was like as they quickly adapt. I don't think there's a major cause for concern as yet. Facebook are far from turning into a Myspace imo.
You might find this useful btw Colin
http://www.fastcompany.com/1782173/what-the-new-facebook-changes-mean-fo...
Facebook is a genius at capitalizing on lonely people and using the data to make billions to vendors with something to sell. Their growth appears limitless.
This has always been the dream of all ISPs, Search Engines, Telcos, Smart Phones, Analytics companies, etc.