Is business planning a waste of time?

business planningFor the past decade or so I've been avid student of complexity or the general suggestion that the world we live in emerges from the enormous number of small actions made by its inhabitants.

Such thinking has begun to take hold in a number of environments during that time, with an increasing number of business related books advocating the approach as the best way to ensure success in a modern environment.

Which brings me to that seemingly arcane document - the business plan.  If you're a start-up looking for funding, the bank will require a business plan from you.  If you are one of the (un)lucky people to go on Dragons Den the investors will grill your projected income figures.  Executives and senior managers lock themselves away in 'retreats'  to conduct business planning sessions.

In such a complex world does it work?  Indeed can it work any better than the 5 year plans of Soviet lore?  With so many variables at play I don't think it can.  You're a manager, you're not a fortune teller.  The whole notion is done purely to give you a sense of control over that which you cannot have any control.

So what?

If you can't plan your business with any degree of accuracy, what can you do?  Thankfully the web has enabled you to go one step better than traditional business planning.  The flow of information is so swift now that you can conduct live experiments incredibly quickly and get real-time feedback on whether something is likely to work.  You're not projecting, you're not guessing, you're not basing future performance on past results, you're getting real-time feedback on whether your idea works.

So my suggestion is scrap the 5 year plans, scrap the 'away days', scrap the business plan and get experimenting, see where it takes you.

Comments

I don't think it's a waste of time per se but companies do often put too much store in their long term plan.  You're right that it is incredibly difficult (impossible?) to cover every eventuality but you have to do a bit of planning ahead, right?

There's an element of truth in what you suggest Adi but this is where a bit of scenario planning comes in. As you rightly say, with the complexities and speed of change of today's society, it's almost impossible to plan with any degree of certainty.

However, organisations must plan to some level and the trick is to continually review and modify rather than create a plan, get it signed off and stick it in the drawer until next year....................an all to common ocurrence I fear.

There is the potential for many major disruptive forces to hit business over a very short period of time that cannot be planned for as they cannot be foreseen (e.g. music downloads versus CDs) and these must be catastrophic for some companies. How can you plan for that five years in advance?

What sort of experiments are you advocating? 

Hi Peter,

I'm broadly speaking not a plan of big, long-term plans as they have so many elements that can change, plus they're not great for motivating people when the goal is so far away.

So I think it works better if you have lots of smaller things to aim for, then not only do people get quick wins to get them on board any project you initiate but you also test the water to see if it will work or not.

In a software development world prototyping is the standout model of this in action.

Adi

I think that a long-term objective is still necessary Adi but there is absolutely no reason not to break this down into smaller, more short-term goals. In fact I think this is a prerequisite of good management.

When I plan my projects (which may span a couple or more years) I break the overall task down into sub-tasks with their own milestones. I monitor progress against the project plan weekly and I can take corrective action if the programme slips. Over the course of the project disruptive forces may cause problems but, through regular monitoring, I am able to identify these forces and take appropriate action.

Sometimes, because the duration of a project is so long, the overall objective may change. But, again, because I know where the project sits at any point in time I am able to react to the changes required. Even better, through regular liaison with my clients, I am often able to act proactively before adverse effects are experienced.

I'm not sure that an organisation acts much differently with respect to setting a long-term strategy with shorter-term goals while regularly monitoring the company's near & far environment and taking whatever corrective action may be necessary - and I don't think this is necessarily wrong.

What is totally wrong is setting a long-term strategy without short to medium term goals and chucking it in a drawer thinking 'job done' until five-years have elapsed.

 

Some nice thoughts on business planning in this video from Mark Zuckerberg and a few others.

Over the last two decades, unprecedented speedy changes at macro, industry and micro levels have once again reignited the debate about the relevance of business planning (BP) advocated by classical management scholars like Henri Fayol. Back then, BP was heralded to provide managers with a structured system to navigate through an environment which by today's standard was stable and static.

Some have argued, today's complex and fast-paced environment has strengthened the case for BP. Amongst its many cited merits, BP prepares managers to confront environmental uncertainties and complexities, paricularly as it enables managers to take stock of key issues that (would) impact their operating environment.

However, the aforementioned argument for BP has been weakened, for instance, in light of the 2008/2009 global financial or economic crisis which exposed the inefficacy of BP in many enterprises (needless mentioning names). And am sure, that's where Adi is coming from.

My intimate understanding of the term business planning has it that, it is a loosely used concept to mean any type of planning in a firm. That already poses a conceptual challenge to move this debate forward. And I see why Peter touched on the time-factor of planning, which to me highlights the pluralistic constructs of the term—business planning.

Whether you call it short-term, long-term, business, or strategic planning, it is not the resultant plan which is incapable but the plan designers in dealing with environmental uncertainty and complexity. Henry Mintzberg in his 1994 paper—The Fall and Rise of Strategic Planning—stated  the term strategic (business) planning is a misnomer. Rather it should be called strategic (business) programming which befits the rigid, non-creative, inflexible and limiting processes that characterised planning activities in most firms. In that respect, like Adi, I readily admit planning becomes useless. Such planning characterisation is at odds with the necessities of prevailing fast-moving and complex business landscape. Besides, I am yet to find an empirical study that gives claim to the normative literature that often draw a direct link between BP and firm's bottomline.

Nonetheless, to dub business planning as "waste of time" amounts to intellectual deceit on my part. Let's step away from the business setting. It's in our human DNA to prepare for the knowns and unknowns. The date you had last weekend; the wedding you organised last year; the trip you made to Vietnam in January; are all outcomes of some form of planning. Planning becomes a  process that humans use for installing and restoring order in an already chaotic world. Why should it be different in the business world?

To navigate through today's environmental uncertainties and complexities, it requires that traditional business processes, tools and techniques be upgraded or rescinded. Planning processes should focus on creating agile and responsive organisations.

Smashing piece of Iconoclastic writing! And such a breath of fresh air when compared to the acres of the same old stuff that is repeated again and again.

At this stage I should declare an interest because as well as being a small business advisor I also produce and sell business planning software.

But, the market I deal with is small and micro businesses and I daily come up against people who have found the business planning process useful (sometimes very useful) - so there is value in it.

I think of business planning as a bit like going on a diet: nobody enjoys it but most people do benefit from it. So while I would say that business planning CAN in specific situations, if done badly, be a waste of time - amongst small and micro businesses it almost NEVER is.

Hi Dave, thanks for your comment.  I agree that planning is useful.  I mean I'm trying to improve my diet at the moment myself so have a plan on how to do that, but there are many times when circumstances intervene and I have to veer from the plan, so it really pays to be flexible with it so that these movements off course don't ruin things.

@Berlin, thanks for the nice reply.  I like your analogy of a trip abroad.  Of course some broad level of planning is required and I think at a vision type level it serves a purpose of showing where you'd like to get to, and culturally how you'd like to get there.  Where it fails is on an operational level as there's a good chance it's out of date by the time the ink is dry.

Thanks Adi. You've brilliantly hammered the last nail on BP's coffin if we are to side with those who say business (strategic) planning is dead given cited studies aknowledging a growing number of organisations which have abandoned strategic planning. Adi states: business planning (BP) "fails on an operational level as there's a good chance it's out of date by the time the ink is dry." Absolutely!!!

Because the BP designers falsely assume while they understake BP, the world around them is static, and can be predicted accurately. It's unfortunate that business schools over the years have been churning out seat-in-glass-office planners instead of business DIYers—the operations people with intimate firsthand experience of business craftmanship.

Overcoming the dichotomous relationship between the BP and today's fast-moving business landscape, requires planing processes that enable continous learning and braod-based participation.

Nice article, right on the money.

What an interesting thread with some great comments backed up with a bit of evidence. I would say that there is a business plan representing 1 year. You might as well do it because you need to communicate to your shareholders or bank anyway. Plus, if it is going wrong you need to know so meticulous monitoring is required. Beyond this you're looking at a forecast, which is just that. It states what assumptions you are making.

I would say, that for big organisations, rather than throwing away the plan they are choosing more considered options.  Organisations like Shell ( look up work done by Pierre Wack ) use scenario planning. they recognise the future is very uncertain especially in geopolitical terms and create possible scenarios of the future and consider capital expenditure in the light of those scenarios thus creating upsides and downsides.

One last point which I think is more important than my first: The annual planning cycle is like a Scottish chieftain gathering the clans a couple of times a year. They ( departmental fiefdoms ) agree common enemies, trade favours, reward each other for battles recently won and engage in battles for the next cycle having bonded and unified.

 

Hi Martin, thanks for commenting.  I think scenario planning could have its uses as it does begin to use some of the fuzzy logic that is more common in how life actually is.  With fuzzy logic you're essentially applying probability to things, much like you do in constructing various scenarios.  Of course even that struggles with longer term plans however, as the IPCC climate change predictions show.  They have a wide range of potential scenarios and yet have failed to really mobilise policy makers into taking action because of their uncertain nature.

There's an interesting article here from Davos talking about the importance of managing complexity.

http://blogs.forbes.com/miasaini/2011/01/28/davos-2011-ceos-and-complexity/

with the KPMG report they reference available here

http://www.kpmg.com/EU/en/Documents/confronting-complexity-20110101.pdf

I think complexity is one of the key reasons for the poor performance of business planning.

“We find that organizations are most successful when they keep their business models simple and don’t create more complexity of their own with the actions they are taking.”

Planning is indeed useful, but I have always been sceptical as the the actual benefits of most budget-settting processes.  Rarely is there a reality check to assess the robustness of the process after the event.

Business planning is rarer, albeit important as well, and acts in my view as scenarios/what if planning.

To lead businesses as if either were a statement of fact leads to some interesting choices that don't allow flexible responses to the realities of the almost real-time events of the marketplace.

 

Accenture have released a report on business planning that may be of interest given this discussion.

http://www.accenture.com/us-en/Pages/insight-strategic-planning.aspx

To (mis)quote Eisenhower "Planning is everything - the plan is nothing" and to continue the quotation theme - from Alice in Wonderland "If you do not know where you are going then any road will lead you there." However the Japanese disasters are illiustrating the constraints of our own imagination when planning.

Consider the squirrel.

He knows where he needs to go. It's that tree over there. But watch the way he moves.

He takes a few rapid steps. Then he stops and scans his environment. Are there any predators about? Is there a supply of nuts I didn't consider?

Then he's off again. Another short burst towards that tree. Then he stops again. Scans the environment. Has anything changed? Am I still on track?

In this fast-moving business climate, we might learn alot from the squirrel.

Nice analogy Sam.  There's a nice talk here by Tim Harford which nicely emphasises the point you make about the complexity of the world and the impact this has on our ability to plan centrally.

There is no reason why the two should not go hand in hand. BP provides the framework where experimentation can take place. Experiments without guidance could become costly hobbies, or even disastrous. Guided experimenting keeps you on your toes and makes you keep up to date with developments. Felxibility must be built within the BP process and experimenting is only one part of the flexibility.

@Adi, thanks very much. I really enjoyed that lecture...

Samuel Toolan wrote:

@Adi, thanks very much. I really enjoyed that lecture...

+1 Very good stuff.

great discussions here about bizplanning - for what its worth, I have an idea that there are only ever 3 reasons why you'd want to spend time on drafting a plan, rather than seeing customers/suppliers or spending time with friends/family down the pub -

http://thirdsectorexpert.blogspot.com/2010/01/secret-truth-about-business-plans.html

(and encouragingly, the Institute of Small Business and Enterpreneurship seemed to agree with me as well! - but that's not to say that you should...)

Planning can often be a substitute for actually doing something.  This is especially so with executives who spend their lives stuck in powerpoints and various reports, oblivious to what is actually happening in their organisation.  They confuse having a plan with implementing a plan.  Two very different things.  So many companies have vast filing cabinets full of plans and reports that largely sit there gathering dust.

All that time spent on plans that no one reads would be much better spent solving the problems their business faces.

perhaps the value of BP depends upon the scope of the plan . If it sets strategic direction and parameters for action and expectation (plus potential risks), it can be a useful working tool (but must of course be used). However, if the BP becomes all encompassing and too detailed and prescriptive - it will be out of date by the time it is published and hence not used (hence a waste of time).

the first appraoch allows flexibility and experiment within a clear framework of objectives - even the squirrel has an overarching plan/objective.

With the exception of businesses that require funding the business plan works best as a reminder of what you want to achieve. Quite often there are a myriad of ways to get to a goal and thus the plan needs to be flexible enough to change with the times and circumstances.

I love Adrian's blog post (above) on the 3 reasons why you would need a business plan and the 'Time Capsule' has definitely been something I have experienced so having my plan has helped get me back on track... more than once!

 

Dear Peter Elliott,

                                I would like to say that business plan of an organization is a core issue without business plan how oranization, will,grow up so in my opinion business plan of an organization play a vital role for the attainment of organizational objective and goals.

Saleem Raza Bhatti ACMI

Asstt: Executive Engineer(E/M).

Karachi water & Sewerge Board. 

 

 

 

Organisations need the rigour of a business plan.  It's the bedrock of how you then approach everything else.  Easy to live without it in the short term but in my view - a dangerous game.

 

Belinda Neal wrote:

Organisations need the rigour of a business plan.  It's the bedrock of how you then approach everything else.  Easy to live without it in the short term but in my view - a dangerous game.

 

There's a quote, maybe by Napolean, talking about planning for battle.  It basically says that the plan is out of date and useless the moment the first shot is fired.  In our complex world that is how it is with business plans too (imo)

Hi - great thread - 

I'd add to the comments in Berlin's link - that a business plan demonstrates the knowledge of the person presenting it, and so its useful in determining whether someone understands the product/market/proposition.  But I agree with others, it can go quickly out of date and there is the game theory concept of 'updating your priors', i.e. when you get subsequent information you should be willing to change your mind.  My firm had a meeting about market strategy in early 2011, and we had to throw it out the window as we adapted and took up new opportunities, while those we wanted to chase simply weren't there - we updated our priors pretty quick!

As documents, business plans can be a 'demonstration' of knowledge, but they can also be used as smoke and mirrors.  As guides, they can be valuable to check against, or they can become a rod for your own back.

Great topic and very illuminating.

My opinion - yes you need to develop a strategic plan so you  know what your intentions / aims are viz a viz the company;s long term growth.

A plan generally provides you with the framework and motivation to carry out your SWOT anaysis, market research, et cetera and decide on your company structure, route to market, and so on.

However, the good old military axiom that "no plan ever survives contact with the enemy" is also crucial to any  plan, in that the plan has to be seen as a starting point which invariably will need to be altered due to market opportunities, business threats, competition, natural disasters et al.

So yes, we need to plan, but the plan needs to take the form of a pliable lifejacket, not a rigid straightjacket... another analagous description could be that a plan is not a map of the journey, but that it is a picture of how you would like the journey to progress, before taking the first step...